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The Dollar Value Problem No One Wants to Talk About — Tavi Costa
The Dollar Value Problem No One Wants to Talk About — Tavi Costa
A rare convergence of gold demand from both Eastern and Western economies is fueling a significant rally in the precious metal, and silver is on the cusp of a major move back to its all-time highs, according to Tavi Costa, Partner & Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital.
Speaking at the PDAC 2025 conference in Toronto, Costa told Kitco News that historical comparisons suggest a dramatic revaluation of gold could be in store.
This guy is basically saying that gold and silver may be headed much higher because of how much debt the U.S. has and how shaky the dollar looks.
First, he points out that the U.S. has an enormous amount of debt (about $36 trillion). At the same time, the value of the gold the U.S. officially owns is very small compared to that debt. Today, U.S. gold is only worth about 2% of all outstanding government debt. In the past, that number was much higher—around 17% in the 1970s and about 40% in the 1940s.
If the U.S. ever tried to “balance things out” the way it used to—by valuing gold more highly compared to its debt—the price of gold would have to rise a lot. He’s not saying gold will definitely hit $25,000 or $55,000 an ounce, but he’s using those numbers to show how far gold could move if the system shifts the way it has before.
He also says central banks around the world (especially outside the U.S.) are buying gold at the fastest pace in 50 years. Meanwhile, U.S. gold reserves are very low compared to history. That mismatch could eventually force the U.S. to rethink how it treats gold.
Another big part of his argument is the U.S. dollar. He believes the dollar is extremely overvalued and likely near a peak. Historically, when the dollar gets this strong, it eventually gets weakened—either on purpose or because it has to. When the dollar weakens, assets like gold, silver, commodities, and emerging markets usually do much better.
As for silver, he thinks it’s close to a breakout. Silver has lagged behind gold, but demand is growing and supply is tight. Based on long-term price patterns, he believes silver could move back toward its all-time highs if gold keeps rising.
Because of all this, he thinks investors may want to move some money out of expensive U.S. tech stocks and into things that have been ignored for years, like commodities, precious metals, and emerging markets. He also notes that big investors like Warren Buffett are sitting on lots of cash, which could be waiting to move once better opportunities show up.
In short, he’s saying the dollar looks stretched, U.S. debt is massive, gold and silver look undervalued compared to history, and a shift away from tech toward hard assets and commodities may be coming.
How This Connects to Food Storage
What he’s really talking about underneath all the charts and numbers is loss of purchasing power. When a currency is overvalued and a country is deep in debt, the most common outcome over time is that money buys less, not more. Prices rise, savings lose value, and people feel poorer even if their bank balance looks the same.
Gold and silver are one way people try to protect themselves from that. But food is actually an even more basic form of value.
Here’s how long-term food storage fits into this picture:
- Food holds real value when money weakens. You can’t eat dollars, stocks, or bonds. No matter what happens to markets or currencies, people still need food every single day. If the dollar loses purchasing power, food prices almost always rise—often faster than wages. When you buy food now and store it properly, you’re locking in today’s prices for something you’ll definitely need later. In that sense, stored food is like prepaying future grocery bills before inflation hits harder.
- Food protects you from price spikes and shortages. When currencies weaken or financial stress increases, supply chains get strained. We’ve already seen this with sudden price jumps, empty shelves, and rationing during recent crises. Having food on hand means you’re less affected when prices spike or items disappear temporarily. Gold might go up in price, but it doesn’t keep your family fed when shelves are bare.
- Food is a non-speculative “asset.” Unlike stocks, crypto, or even precious metals, food isn’t something you’re gambling on. There’s no “timing the market.” If nothing bad happens, you still eat the food. If things get rough, you’re extremely glad you have it. That makes food storage one of the lowest-risk ways to preserve value, because the downside is almost zero.
- Food hedges against both inflation and disruption. Gold mainly protects against inflation and currency devaluation. Food protects against:
- Inflation
- Supply chain breakdowns
- Job loss or income disruption
- Natural disasters
- Panic buying
- Government policy changes
It’s a broader form of insurance.
- Historically, people always move toward necessities first. When confidence in money weakens, people instinctively shift toward real things: land, tools, fuel, and food. Throughout history, those who had stored essentials were far better off than those who only had paper wealth. You can’t live inside a gold bar—but you can survive off stored food.
Bottom Line
What this guy is warning about is a period where financial assets may look unstable and everyday necessities become more expensive. Buying long-term food storage is a way to:
- Preserve purchasing power
- Reduce future expenses
- Increase independence
- Add real-world security to your household
